MBActivist

Great News in Housing!

2010-11-05T13:47:00.001-07:00

Our purchasing power has increased against the US Dollar and Canadian Real Estate. With Real Estate dropping to 1994 levels it will spur on reinvestment into non fixed assets and get us out of this recession.

Housing Prices to Half - Actual Decline of 25% annualized from May 2010

2010-09-14T06:11:00.000-07:00

Housing prices have now crumbled 6.3% from their May 2010 high. That is over 25% annualized loss, and we are only in the summer! We might be seeing 30% loss in the year over year by next May

The skin of the housing bubble is about to burst. It's not higher interest rates or even doubtful employment. It is simply the return to a normal level of home prices. Housing for a brief time, the last two decades, was somehow percieved as an investment, not a basic commodity like shoes, food, heat. The very idea that shelter is also an investment defies logic, but that is what occured. Now, like the laws of nature, the laws of economics also must return.

So my prediction for housing in Toronto - a 40-50% drop and Vancouver a 60% drop. This drop is to a stable price. The prices could actually, and will likely move down farther than that as a standard reaction. These price drops will overshoot, just as the recent twenty year bubble overshot.

2010-08-13T07:07:00.000-07:00

Back In Toronto after G20

2010-06-29T22:02:00.000-07:00

I was up north fishing during the G20.

Found out that when the Black Bloc Anarchists ran away from Queen and Spadina they hid in my backyard.

No damage or anything stolen

Toronto Wrapped Up for the Party

2010-06-22T05:54:00.000-07:00

The whole business downtown is walled off. The traders and financial suits are up north, not in Huntsville though. Going fishing for a few days and will be back when the walls come down.

Elliot Wave Theorist

2010-06-18T06:10:00.000-07:00

"Stock market bulls and most economists think that a new bull market and economic recovery are underway. Most bears are looking for either a long sideways bear market à la 1966-1982, or a hyperinflationary run to infinity. Our Elliott Wave outlook opposes both of these scenarios. The most likely profile is a stock market crash of historic proportions."
Elliott Wave Theorist offers several reasons, including: "This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."
There will be a short-term rally at some point, thinks Prechter, but it will be a trap: "The 7.25-year and 20-year cycles are both scheduled to top in 2012, suggesting that 2012 will mark the last vestiges of self-destructive hope. Then the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair."

Adam Smith - updates

2010-06-11T12:08:00.000-07:00

http://adamsmithslostlegacy.com/ASLLBlog.htm

Adam Smith's term the "invisible hand" refers to ensuring personal security not profit or wealth by investing locally.

Also, my alma mater the Edinburgh Business School purchased Adam Smith's last home and is returning it back to a space that is convivial to discussion around the social sciences.

http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/misc/panmure-house/

USA - Secular State

2010-05-17T12:22:00.000-07:00

"As the government of the United States of America is not in any sense founded on the Christian Religion,-as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of Musselmen,-and as the said States never have entered into any war or act of hostility against any Mehomitan nation, it is declared by the parties that no pretext arising from religious opinions shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries. "

Treaty of Tripoli exerpt passed by the President of the US John Adams and Cabinet

US Health Care Bill

2010-03-25T08:48:00.001-07:00

The passage of the US Health Bill is another line in the sand towards a truly democratic Christian US nation. By Christian, we are not talking about a non-sensical religion that believes in such nutty things like a god or life after death. By Christian we mean a philosophy of life that values living and turning the other cheek when faced with a bully or violence. Sure there are tens of millions of Americans who worship such fascists and stupid people like Ann Coulter, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and other self styled vile and selfish people. But the US culture is evolving and such radical mean and cruel positions that have been brought against minorities, gays, the poor, the disabled and the sick are losing traction. Will the US ever catch up with Canada and Europe. Likely not, but the US is the Jessica Simpson and Britney Spears to Meryl Streep or Kate Winslet. They are great to watch because its great to see even stupidity get rewarded.

Let the wiser half of the US pull its bumpkin sibling towards enlightenment. It is trying and stressful to watch but progress is there.

Housing and Financial Crisis Redux

2010-03-15T05:52:00.000-07:00

When you have been in the money game as long as I have, there is nothing really new to see. I have a very simple observation that will ring true but many will not heed. The belief in God is the route of all the problems we encounter. When you convince yourself, your peers and especially the children you raise that there is some external invisable and all powerful force that you must obey then you have lost your ability to see reality through clear and rational observations. When an entire nation does that, it has lost its way. The US must accept as a nation that there is no God and the only way to survive is through hard work and sacrifice.

The US has to accept a much lower standard of living, a universal health care system (people pray to the empty sky because they fear for their lives when they have no safety net to protect them. The "right-wing" fundamentalist know this and that is the main reason for blocking universal health care. Eliminate the fear of extreme loss by having a sharing and protective system, you eliminate the need to live in the world of fantasy. The US can change that quickly by preserving the separation of church and state and acting with purpose to cut away all the tentacles of religion from the decision making process. You eliminate the church in the discussion and decision making and even the major corporations in the military and the health industry will accept that there is lots of money to be made supplying their services to a humanist- secular society. If the act is too radical for the majority of the US, then start with simply acknowledging that if there was a man called Jesus Christ, he was simply a man with a refreshing humanist, non-diest philosophy. That would be the first truth many Americans will be able to embrace.

The US has dug itself so deeply into debt and has let so much of its production capacity go offshore or shut down, their ability to stop the quick decline is not possible in their current state. As Canadians we have real concern about being sucked into their abyss.

But we have a smaller population with much more natural resources. We also live in a pretty hostile environment that requires planning, central heating and a strong community that helps the worse off to improve themselves. We do that because unlike the US, if that safety net did not protect the homeless, the sick and the poor they would simply die by the thousands due simply to the cold weather. We know about cycles and how to prepare for them. We know that no matter how wonderful the summer is, it ends and the leaves fall, the ground freezes and death is only a few hours away if exposed to the elements. We have learned to live with the cold and the ice. Instead of fearing it, we know that if we have central heating, hot food and proper layering for clothing we can go out and play in this wild and dangerous environment. We learn that as kids when Mom bundles us up to spend hours in this deadly environment of cold and ice.

The rest of world saw this at the Vancouver 2010 Olympics. We were dealt pretty devastating blows but we rallied and won. The US simply needs to take our lead and it too can find a way out of this very dark and seemingly impossible hell they are in.

Green Financial Plan

2010-02-22T05:41:00.000-08:00

1. Reduce your Environmental Footprint
2. Prepare a full financial plan using the 6 steps to financial planning
3. Invest in socially responsible investments

That is it.

2010-02-11T08:24:00.001-08:00

Iceland Ice Save

2010-01-08T08:09:00.000-08:00

Simple. Do not pay beyond the insurance. If insurance premium did not reflect the catastrophic loss then one can't go to another source for compensation? Let the insurance company fail as well.

Capitalism without Profits.

2009-09-10T06:19:00.003-07:00

need to get BWB in Canada. Hope to set up the Canadian division. Have the URL www.socialbusiness.ca. This is where the public will learn about the successful social business that I have been involved in.

I have thought about a book on Social Business. Titled "Capitalism without Profit" Ethics without God

The premise is simple, capitalism would be much more effective if we stopped the backdoor theft of resources via dividends and other escape valves (high bonuses and stock options). The new economic order has the labour at the centre using technology to reduce the cost of goods to consumers while enhancing the quality of life for the worker.

I fortunately have seen this in action on Bay Street here in Toronto, Ontario. My work with the Public Guardian and Trustee has seen the income paid to clients increase by a factor of 5 to 10 and the cost of investment funds reduced by a factor of at least 8. On a billion dollars that works out to $10s of millions of dollars a year going to our disabled clients instead of bank profits and overhead. My goal would be to see these financial products and services available to the consumer. We also have the top financial planning department to serve the thousands of clients we have.

Happy Birthday Charlie and Abe!

2009-02-13T06:41:00.000-08:00

200 Years old and still misunderstood. Charles Darwin's 200th anniversary is Feb. 12. What a wonderful day to Celebrate.

Also Abraham Lincoln the American President that oversaw the Civil War, North America's bloodiest and most violent acts also turned 200.
If you think that change is difficult consider the following two speeches given by Lincoln five years apart.

Speech delivered in 1858 in Charleston, Ill.:

“I will say, then, that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races—that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of making voters or jurors of Negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this, that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I, as much as any other man, am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race.”

To the Gettysburg Address in 1863:

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

Transformation is possible.

Happy Thomas Paine Day and Athiest Bus OK'd

2009-01-29T05:47:00.000-08:00

The democratic free world needs to celebrate Thomas Paine. His writings were passionate and clear. They are as true today as they were at the time of the American and French Revolutions.

Also just heard that the Athiest Bus Campaign has been approved for the TTC. Go to athiestbus.ca to donate to such a worthy cause.

Registered Disability Savings Plan

2009-01-15T12:47:00.000-08:00

It's the middle of January and I am in my professional job tracking the implementation of the RDSP for thousands of disabled individuals here in Toronto.

My long-term friend and colleague John Dowson (Executive Director LifeTrust Planning)and I (past Treasurer of Toronto Community Living)were talking about how the RDSP has grown since we sat around the table with Jim Love, Bob Wilson of Legacy Private Trust and other EDs of various disability service providers on how to create the Registered Disability Savings Plan. At the time we were looking at a formal trust that contributions could be made into. It is fun to look at the notes from these original meetings and see how many of these ideas have made it into the current RDSP.

It helped that Jim Love was the lead on the RDSP concept paper (and old school mate of Jim Flarherty) and John Dowson had been a contributor.

18 Months after the Sell

2009-01-06T08:29:00.000-08:00

It has been 18 months since I sold off my equities and sat in cash. I figured 33% was enough return to sit on it. I wanted to short the market but used the gains to pay off some lingering debt. I was going to go back in in September but after putting a toe in I stopped. Now what are we going to do. Nice to see some positive numbers on both the TSX and the DOW but just as I called the top, I am still not convinced we are at the bottom.

Keep posted.

CAW and UAW

2008-12-23T07:42:00.000-08:00

I think its time for the unions to stand tough. Making consessions now is the absolutely the worst thing to do. Proper wages and benefits is as important as human rights. The auto companies have to cut from the top and capture market share with product that relative to today. Cutting staff and turning back wages is not the answer. If this means there is going to be a real physical battle on the union front then so be it. Unions hang tough

Holiday Greetings

2008-12-19T06:00:00.000-08:00

At this time of year, the long nights are upon us. The need to be kind and caring to others is essential, since most of us would rather be cuddled up beside a warm fire next to a glowing xmas tree drinking hot chocolate and listening to carols.

This is the time to reflect on the beauty of our world and how far our human species has evolved. We are waking up to the fact that the world is very small and maybe more fragile than we thought it was. The economic, social and environmental upheaval we are in requires bold moves, not just from our leaders but from each and everyone of us.

The US is to have its first black president. We in Canada are seeing the power of coalition government or the threat there of. I know as democracies we the people are the government and we make the laws to ensure that our societies are just and humane. But outside the government, people still need to have guidance and insight into their own morality. That is why, with such turmoil around us, the great religious leaders of the world should meet and pronounce in unity that the traditions and teaching they espouse are from human insight and thoughtful reflection. They should all come forward and say that what we have referred to as God or the Holy Spirit, Mohammed, Buddha, Zeus, Mithra etc. are manifestations of our own belief that there is a higher intangible force that binds us together. This force, this social sharing and deep conviction to help and feel empathy for others is real. That these feelings have been manifested into a supernatural being that is real is not so.

I am watching a lot of Xmas movies. Many of them have as their main theme the reality of Santa Claus. Modern shows with Whoopi Goldberg or Tim Allen make this very clear. I love these movies and I love the feeling I and my family get from watching them. Do we believe in Santa? No, but we believe in what we feel and care for. Santa, Christ, Easter Bunny, Thor are all wonderful creative solutions to encapsulate why we feel these loving and caring thoughts. We now know that evolution of the human species, along with all species has made these needs to share and care for each other "hardwired" into us.

So for Xmas I want all religious leaders to come forward and say, We no longer need to believe in God (there isn't one and believing in something does not make it so) but believe in each other and the kindness that is within all of us. That would be wonderful and even a miracle!

Turn our back on the Bully

2008-12-10T08:33:00.001-08:00

Thomas Paine made the argument two hundred years ago. You don't ask for freedom from a monarch you take it and simply ignore the bully for what she is. Canada now has to simply turn away and stop this ridiculous farce. It saddened me when Trudeau had to get the Queen to sign the Constitution. It angers me now that we ask the queen to shut down our government instead of listening to the majority of our electorate. What a silly country we are. The world is ramped up to a frenzy to deal with a global collapse and our elected officials have asked the queen to bury our heads in the snowbank for two months. With the hope that this scary thing will be over by then.

Shame on us and our gutless constitution.

OBAMA Wins - The World Wins

2008-11-05T06:31:00.000-08:00

Well its done, the USA has elected a black man whose dad was from Kenya mom from Kansas. Raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. A brilliant and eloquent orator. A strong man with a bright smile. Its a fantastic day for democracy and freedom.

People, Planet, Profit

Market Turmoil or World Poverty

2008-09-22T06:08:00.001-07:00

How about $700Billion for the elimination of world poverty and preventable disease? it seems a decision can be made overnight on major issues involving billions of dollars.

Considering it's easier to find a starving child with malaria than determine what these toxic loans are worth. The payoff is much greater and the benefits felt worldwide.

Yadda Yadda Yadda - another week another crisis

2008-09-15T06:37:00.000-07:00

So nice to be getting use to trillions of dollars going up in smoke while the US is waging an election. Lehman and Merrill are history, what's next. Too bad we all told you so, but that doesn't matter because the ones making the bad decisions and destroying wealth and the security of an entire nation really don't care. They have more money and more legally binding severance packages than you can wag a stick at. After the first $50,000,000 in cash bonuses the pain of a multi-million severance package should make them whole again. But with so many financial firms going under, how many CEO jobs are left?

Fannie and Freddie

2008-09-08T06:02:00.001-07:00

That is all we need is the largest financial bailout in history. American taxpayers will be in the red for generations to come.

Housing costs and inflation

2008-07-15T10:56:00.000-07:00

Housing prices have to ride in 100% tandem with inflation. Any more you have a bubble, any less you have a bust. For anyone who thinks a house is an investment, they should apply the same logic to milk, eggs and clothing. These are basic needs and as such can only be priced to meet the financial ability to pay.

A house can be bought on credit, but only if the price is three times your income, you can make a 25% downpayment, the amortization is at a maximum 20-25 years and the mortgage payment to take home pay is at 30-40% maximum. If you meet this basic common sense criteria, go ahead buy a home. But since you can rent a place for a fraction of having the burden of ownership who would possibly ever do so?

EEStor powered CityZENN targeted for fall 2009

2008-06-25T07:51:00.000-07:00

That will be a great breakthrough. Like DSL on Telephone lines.

What is Christianity

2008-06-17T12:59:00.001-07:00

Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree. — unknown

Prius Zipcar, Mio H610 and Doors Open

2008-06-02T12:28:00.001-07:00

What a great time using Zipcar and the Toyota Prius. At $7 an hour, we spent Sunday afternoon visiting some great Toronto outdoor areas. Took in the Brickworks. With rubber boots and a hardhat we toured the Dickensian inner bowels of the brick factory, the old kilns and coal furnaces turned back time for us. Then a quick route north to Edward Gardens using Betty Ann's Mother's day gift the Mio H610 GPS with Text to Speech. A great park with a wonderful reno on the garden centre.

We finished off the afternoon down at the NYC where we sat and watched the sunset over Lake Ontario. A suberb day on 70 miles to the gallon. The best part about Zipcar is how easy it was to extend the time each half hour. A speed dial on the cell phone and a quick login and a minute later it was all done.

Green Bonds

2008-06-02T12:28:00.000-07:00

I attended a session on "green bonds" today http://greenbonds.ca. The structure of the securities and the various metrics used regarding the bonds sustainability and marketability were novice but showed some potential. As a social entrepreneur who underwrote or founded companies that focused on: home and business enegy audits, smartcard money transfer technology, car sharing co-operatives, computer recycling and welfare re-training, India-Canada trade, socially responsible mutual funds etc. I am the last person to say no to anything innovative.

I wish I could find time to devote more resources to clean technologies, but am living as clean as possible within reason. This blog will help clarify what financial initiatives and models are possible to help combat climate change. I can put together the same forward thinking that we applied to the billion dollars owned by disabled adults that I currently work as the Senior Financial Planner for. It's highly possible that my eventual doctoral thesis will be on the private-public co-operation needed to bring green-bonds to the market. A similar project regarding the Registered Disability Savings Plan also had its genesis with finance professionals, social service professionals and lawyers. It only took a couple of years to get that put in the budget. This initiative could prove just as fruitful.

MBActivist

US bound

2008-04-04T05:45:00.000-07:00

Well, I'll be driving from Toronto to Florida next week and will guage first hand if the US is feeling the pain of inflation, recession, home price implosion, terrorist war fatigue, lame duck president syndrome and on and on.

The fundamentals all around seem to have lost their footing. I've been to the US three times in the last year; Chicago, New York and my last drive to Florida. The country overall felt just fine, New Yorkers during the Xmas break seemed overally warm and upbeat. Was this all a brave face.

As the US goes, eventually so goes Canada. We did stay out of Iraq, but we have a lot of oil stuck in that tarsand muck up north, so no need to go there.

I am looking for to this Road Trip and will keep you posted on what I discover.

People Planet Profit

Housing still has a long way to go

2008-03-28T05:19:00.000-07:00

The US housing meltdown is probably a third of the way through with no real bottom in sight. It can either to it quickly and get it over with or slowly and keep the pain going on for decades. The US is having a big problem. Protesters are taking over Wall Street, the Feds are bailing out "29 year olds in Maseratis" -thank you Jim Rogers. They are stuck in a war started on lies and with a cost of trillions with no end in sight. The US presidential runup is going to become more painful to watch as November looms. Is there any positive things happening in the US. Now the concern is that Obama is too liberal? Well, if that means that a trillion dollars should stay in the US to repair and strengthen its social fabric instead of going half way around the world to Iraq, then let's be as liberal as possible. Just been reading Marx and his sentiments about Germany at the time seem to echo where the US is today. No matter how "liberal" the US becomes it will still trail the entire developed world in terms of social justice, secular government, education and social programs. Wasn't it Wharton who wanted his business school to train the minds of future leaders to be able to help society. Well MBActivist will over the coming weeks be bringing the bravest and the best of business management models, strategies and working solutions to this blog. Stay tuned.

MBActivist is live

2008-03-22T16:34:00.000-07:00

When I was just a young kid at university, 1975, I believed that social change would happen if the principles of business were used to address the environment and social injustice. Afterall, these are two of the most important quality of life issues I thought needed real change.

Well, 35 years later, I am still that same teenager now in a 50plus year old body. But, I know my original position actually worked. As a Zoomer (Moses Znaimer - good word) I am in a fun position to tell my story and have others vicariously enjoy it.

As a green business owner, a social activist, an MBA, a past stock broker, a government civil servant, a husband, a parent and a humanist my life has been very interesting to say the least.

I have a very simple view of business especially, finance. The system works except for those bottlenecks, called management fees, brokerage commissions and bonuses. There is a need to generate a living wage, and then there is just insane wanton greed. I know it's a problem with anyone who is given responsibility or control over someone elses money. It's very hard to not want to have them part with a little more each time you turn on your computer and see their wealth spread across your screen.

Anyway, I hope over the next part of my life, this blog will help anyone with serious questions about money, ethical behavior on Wall Street or Bay Street and an interest in living a good life.

John A. Burns
MBA,CFP,FMA,FCSI, RFP, ChP